I have had the privilege of being at the Sydney Anglican Synod for much of the last week or so. It has been a wonderful time in so many ways. I am delighted that we (the synod) has been able to “see the crowds” and act accordingly. Archbishop Raffel has chaired well. There has been humour. We have covered a lot of ground. New synod members that I have spoken with have enjoyed it. And there are many other positive and encouraging things that could be said.
Yet, I have had a growing sense of ….. err…. something concerning over the course of the synod. It was in 2016 that I presented a confronting graph to the synod. It showed that, despite substantial offertory growth, Sydney Anglican Churches had an annual attendance growth rate of just 0.1% over 13 years.
I have now updated this graph, as shown above. Over the 18 years (until 2019), despite annual giving increases of 5.3%, the number of people (adults) coming to church has started to decline. This is despite an increase in the Australian population of 30% over the same period. Many suspect that the data (once available) will show a notable decline (perhaps 10-20%?) after COVID. Interestingly, this data was not presented nor available in any report.
I will leave it to you and others to speculate on the reasons and factors. I am just putting this data out there. It is critical that we confront the data, even confronting data. It is the first step to grappling with the current realities, that, with God’s help, should then spur us into action to reach the nations for Jesus, beginning in our own backyard.
One caution is worth bearing in mind, and that is the default tendancy to rationalise the data away: we are doing better than everyone else; it’s been a tough time, let’s not discourage people; the world is changing; etc. How can we help one another get past natural defensiveness? All of these things may well be true, however, at the same time, the Apostle Paul provided a challenging example:
22 To the weak I became weak, to win the weak. I have become all things to all people so that by all possible means I might save some. 23 I do all this for the sake of the gospel, that I may share in its blessings. 1 Corinthians 9:22–23 (NIV)
A great starting point would be to turn to the Lord of the harvest in prayer. But what should, with God’s help, be next?
I find myself haunted once again with the words of friend many years ago: “The Anglican Church seems to be good at managing slow decline.” May this not be the case on our watch.
September 20, 2022 at 3:35 pm
So let me get this straight… The “concerning” thing at Synod is that *your* graph wasn’t mentioned? err…
September 20, 2022 at 7:03 pm
Oh. No, my point is that the Synod has not been talking about our plateau. I don’t mind in what way that happens, or on what basis. But there does seem to be a lack of awareness on the serious issue.
September 20, 2022 at 8:00 pm
David Oakenfull of Asquith/Mt Colah/Mt Kurring-Gai has taken an interest in questionning total Diocesan attendance count at recent Synods. I’ve always found it ironic that such questions would come from a gentleman who was part of a three way merger of churches. Telling isn’t it?
September 21, 2022 at 11:42 am
Not saying that there isn’t something to consider here, but I’m not loving the graph. Could be more explanatory.
What is the giving data used here? Is it indexed? Wage growth has not been strong but there has been some since 2002, meaning that people might giving more in total $, but that could still represent the same amount in real terms i.e. in terms of what that money might purchase. Giving amounts need to be adjusted in light of CPI and the fact that churches would have increased costs (incl. stipends). If giving goes up by 10% but so do costs, the financial impact of that giving is 0%. So you need to report ‘real’ growth in giving for the green line to be meaningful. Giving may well be ahead of what we might expect after taking into account inflationary effects, but that hasn’t been explained. (I am thinking that the green line might actually be closer to the yellow line if giving has not already been indexed. If that were the case, it might suggest that giving is just keeping up with the costs of the increased numbers of clergy.)
Also, the ‘annual growth’ on the RH axis – this is the mean over 18 years – is that right? That could be labelled as such.
October 10, 2022 at 2:17 pm
I thought I had sent a comment asking about the indexing of the ‘giving’ figure to adjust for inflation. Perhaps it did not go through? That is quite important for interpreting this graph i.e. to make clear whether you have adjusted giving for inflation.